Trump’s Biggest Threat

His supporters are the silent majority disgusted by politics, and that might diminish his real primary results:

Trump’s unexpected and sustained popularity has, at least in part, been fueled by his appeal to a voting bloc that seems to be emerging: blue-collar workers without college degrees who are slightly younger than the traditional Republican voter. Many say they haven’t cared about politics until now, as they flock to Trump rallies like groupies to a rock concert, read his books, buy his products, quote his jokes and follow his social-media accounts.

But is their devotion to Trump deep enough to vote?

For those who don’t regularly vote in primaries, doing so for the first time is a hurdle – especially in Iowa, which uses a caucus system that can intimidate first-timers.

In states with early primary contests, Trump’s staffers are trying to teach their supporters how to vote and get a commitment that they actually will. Before each rally here, Trump’s state co-chairs walk the crowd through how the caucuses work and urge them to attend. But they are also hoping word will spread through social media and in conversations after church, at the school bus stop, during coffee breaks and over holiday dinners.

If you’ve voted in one primary, it is very easy to show up and vote once more – there is no amygdala pathway stopping you. If you have never voted in a primary, don’t know where to go, what to do, or how to do it, it can produce enough aversive stimulus to drive you to stay home.

What Trump should do is appeal for the help himself as the dates approach, pointing out everything that he has done for the cause thus far, how much he has changed the entire political game, highlighting how much the media and corrupt establishment hate him and want him to fail, and then telling the supporters in each market exactly how to support him – both out of loyalty, and to attack our common enemies in the media and establishment. Show up to the caucus, be sure you are registered as Republican, bring a friend to vote, tell others how to do it, etc.

Supporters appreciate Trump’s sacrifices in getting out there and taking all the arrows he has endured. If he asks for support they will feel obliged to help, given how the media is trying to destroy him – and not trying to help will trigger aversive stimulus similar to betrayal, if it is couched right. Combined with amygdala irritation at the thought of letting the establishment and media win and screw over both America and us, and it would be a fairly powerful cognitive driver of action.

Cruz will do fine in this, because his voters have all probably voted in several primaries already. The danger here is Trump vastly underperforming. If he ends up only slightly better than Jeb in Iowa once the votes are counted, the media will jump on it and he will immediately get labeled as being like Giuliani. We cannot have that. We need this giant anti-liberal wrecking ball destroying everything about the status quo throughout this campaign.

GOPocalypse cometh™