Now Trump Moves the Public Opinion Needle with Truth

There is a strange element of the charmed about Donald Trump. Yes, he and his campaign are sharp. Yes, he speaks to the crowd in a way brilliantly designed to move the public polling. But you have to admit, if you wrote a movie script where his enemies were as screwed up as they are in real life, and support flowed so effortlessly to him, it would seem unrealistic.

All from the interview here (click over to it after reading this post, it is quite good):

Hillary could get twenty years for the email scandal:

TRUMP: Hillary has problems far greater than the nomination. If you look at what’s going on with the emails, it’s a fraud if you think about it. This looks like Watergate on steroids, frankly. Watergate was about the cover-up more than the act. You can’t have a nominee who is under investigation. What are they going to do, run and then two nights before the presidential race she gets indicted? General Petraeus, for doing 5 percent of what she did, his life has been destroyed. And it goes up to 20 years in prison. It’s from one to 20 years for what she did!

Before, ask the public how long Hillary would spend in prison, and the low-info voters would have said zero years. Let Trump spread that the punishment for what she did is twenty years, and that low-info opinion will begin to creep up – and all Trump needs is to get it above zero.

Later in the same interview:

These campaigns get dirty and ugly. Would you ever use Karl Rove?

TRUMP: No. Is he a friend of yours?

No, but he’s been a godfather of elections for the GOP.

TRUMP: What happened is Karl Rove in the last cycle spent $436 million, and he didn’t win one race. And on election evening [when he challenged Fox News’ Obama victory prediction], he had a bad night. The result was wrong!

Then there is Lindsey Graham’s polling.

Are you having fun? It seems that way.

TRUMP: Well, it’s more fun when you’re leading the polls. I might not like it as much if I was mired in 10th place. Leading the polls is more fun than if you’re in 12th place [or], like, Lindsey Graham in 17th place with zero percent and he’s a senator. He’s actually got zero. How do you do that?

One thing about Giuliani’s brief rise – those who attacked him didn’t immediately see their polling collapse. As we watch, politicians are being trained to heel to Donald’s commands. Rand Paul is wishing he kept his mouth shut. Lindsey never stood chance, but even so you’d think he’d get a point or two of pity polling.

In each case, Hillary’s criminality, Karl Rove’s incompetence, and Lindsey Graham’s poor performance, Trump can merely state the honest truth, and it will be so exaggerated he couldn’t state it any more extremely. Later, when Trump emphasizes some point with hyperbole, it will seem less unrealistic and its effect on the public will be huge.

The other interesting facet to Trump’s delivery is he gives a stream of consciousness style of speech, which contains many distracting divergences from the topic at hand, and itself has an almost hypnotic effect, probably enhanced by how entertaining he is as a person. It is easy as you read that interview, to begin to feel as if it is your stream of consciousness. The interviewer asks the question, and as you begin to think about an answer, you feel Donald’s answer flow out of you as if it were your own thoughts, and it feels right – almost fun. As I read that, I could feel my amygdala turn off and relax. If you are even vaguely American, it is close enough to what you think that even the little pieces that may not fit, kind of get squeezed into place.

It is so subtle, I have trouble telling if it is some highly refined form of hypnotic guidance, guiding my thoughts through stream-of-consciousness-mimicry, rather than than bumping up against my intellect assertively, or if Trump is genuinely such a likable guy he just has to let his honest thoughts out, and you like them. It is possible none of this is planned, though he is smart enough and it is successful enough that I find that unlikely.

It is impressive given how opinionated Trump is, and how starkly he splits the world into liked and unliked, and good and bad. This isn’t a guy who gives off pastel ideas you can read your own color into. It would seem inevitable that some idea of his would impact your own idea and cause aversive stimulus. Yet as I read that, my brain’s aversive stimulus seems turned off. Even when he gave in to gay marriage, it wasn’t as impactful as if Jeb Bush or Karl Rove did it. My brain just glided over it.

Now imagine Jeb or Rubio thinking carefully about a question, and giving a polished, refined, technical answer perfectly formed to target the question specifically, and imbued with their exact talking points. Immediately your bullshit detector screens go up, you go hyper-alert on guard, and you brace to confront them wherever they are wrong (and even if you like what they say, you assume it is a lie).

The least little difference, and you are ready to take issue with it because of aversive stimulus. Given how Donald has established this form of delivery as his own, it works effortlessly for him, yet nobody else can possibly try to use it themselves. It is a very unique advantage. He can say anything, think anything, and embrace anything, and it won’t turn you off to him, while every other politician is walking on eggshells.

His candidacy will be fascinating to watch. Between the unique style/presentation he has, the unorthodox techniques he uses, and his campaign’s thoroughness, we will see things during this cycle that may not arise again in politics for a century or more. It’s going to be very interesting – if we can spot the interesting parts.