Like any savvy investor, I am always on the lookout for signs that the economy may be overheating, that things may be getting a bit frothy. Of particular concern are exotic businesses that pop up at the very end of economic booms, selling products or services that will be the first items struck off the shopping list once things go south. You know what I’m talking about. Fantasy Capo di Tutti Capi camps. Cribbage with the Stars. Falconry Schools for the Blind.
Recently, several enterprises matching this general description caught my eye. The Sirens of the Deep Mermaid Camp in Weeki Wachee Springs State Park down in Florida is a perfect example. Here, for $450, women can slip into a tight, taut body-sculpting spandex tail with matching fins and learn how to convincingly impersonate the mythical denizens of the deep. The two-day camp teaches aspiring mermaids how to perform a variety of sophisticated thalassa-balletic maneuvers, including the archetypal “mermaid crawl.”…
Mermaid camp sounds like a lot of fun, even more fun than Fantasy M.C. Hammer Camp, but it also sounds like the sort of what-will-they-think-of next venture that always attain a certain popularity just before the economy craters and people have to go back to paying their electricity bills and feeding their kids. It does, however, hold out the prospect of similar camps for those who would like to impersonate other mythical creatures: unicorn camp, minotaur camp, centaur camp. By the way, it is not entirely clear whether mermaid camp is open to men…
The last three times the country went into a recession, I ignored all the telltale signs that things were getting out of hand, that people had way too much money to burn. I have learned the hard way that when we reach the point where consumers are willing to pay to be abducted, interrogated, and even tortured—perhaps merely to find out if their spouses would be willing to pony up the $525 ransom to secure their release—we may be reaching the end of a market cycle.
What he is describing is a tangible manifestation of the r-psychology, which assumes money will always be available, and thus wastes money on all sorts of ridiculous things. I think he is looking at that, even more than resource availability because high resource availability combined with a K-psychology would produce increased savings in investment for the future, rather than expenditures on both mermaid schools, and mermaids in bars and restaurants.
So we have an investor looking to find a measure of the extent to which the population has gone r, to try and time the onset of peak r and the consequent K-shift.
I am not sure how much this will work this time though. We were definitely primed for a K-shift and the economic collapse which would accompany it, but for two things. One, the country has formed a split, with one side having shifted very K, while a smaller population has gone hyper r due to the Obama’s extensive application of artificial r-stimuli to the nation during the previous eight years. I am not sure if that hyper K-population can put enough into the system to forestall the free resources being drained by the rabbits, but they might be just enough to stave things off a bit.
Of course the second thing is the arrival of the God-Emperor. The foundation for the measures of imminent collapse this investor is looking at was laid during the Obama administration. Were Obama still President, I would say the measures he cites are valid.
But now Trump has basically undone all of the detriments holding the business world and the economy back. He has implemented measures to actually help businesses make money, he has lowered taxes, and he is eliminating government waste left and right. I would expect Trump will trigger a short term boom which could last well into his second term.
It is interesting, because the writer is right. There is a strong strain of the r-strategy out there, and the boom will only drive it more r and that will weigh on the economy. But with business and the populace thriving, we may have a good window to head still more r, at least for 4 or six years.
So I am unsure if the measure holds now. But it is still interesting that investors kind of measured the arrivals of collapses based on peaks in r-selected-psychology-driven types of resource allocations.
Tell others about r/K Theory, because the Apocalypse is still closing in
Economics is a bit of a pet project of mine. I have no formal education, but have spend more time on it than many majors…
My current working hypothesis is: A stock market peak followed by a high level distribution pattern. That distribution pattern could last into Trump’s second term. But will likely end in a rout.
The mermaid show at WeekiWatchee has been around for decades. It is like an old road-side attraction that has managed to survive due to nostalgia I think. I agree that it is a signal that there is too many fools throwing money away, but it was a pretty cool marketing idea.
In the HAES world there is a subgroup that fantasize about being a mermaid. Weeki Watchee noticed, and took action.
I admit to seeing it once with my daughter. I lived in the area and an employee party/event included the mermaid show. It is funny to think about because they were all young, slim, fit and pretty girls in the costumes and obviously swim athletes. I can only imagine what sort of fat, HAES, other-kin type of person signs up for mermaid camp.
The mermaid show at Weeki Wachee has been going on for many years, and I just saw something in the local news about tryouts for mermaids for the new season. It requires some real skills. They’ve struggled financially in recent years, and it almost shut down a few years ago, so I’m not surprised they’d try this. I suppose there are worse ways to spend $450, but still an interesting indicator, and I can believe there would have been some sort of bust had anyone other than Trump won.
Brandon says the Fed is going to pop the bubble soon.
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3346-party-while-you-can-central-bank-ready-to-pop-the-everything-bubble
Apple is going to repatriate $350 billion (with a B) over the next few years. That’s huge. They are going to build a second campus somewhere, and will likely pay cash. They’re going to pay $38 billion in taxes just to move it back. That’s Apple giving the govt the money to buy two Ford Class carriers and stock them with airframes.
Just with the tax bill, Trump moved the goalposts. I think you are right that it is going to lead to more division than more r, though. There are lot, lot more people invested in the Prepper identity now.
Missed closing a tag. Also, as Vox Day points out — forget carriers, that $38BB pays for the wall with money left over.
Hi, I think I can add something to the list: electronic music festivals. My wife & I recently went to one in Lake Tahoe just to see what the kids are up to these days. Let me tell you; it ain’t good. If they’re our future, God help us. It was a complete r-strategist shitshow. We were by far the oldest couple there (mid 40’s) and were completely disregarded, which all things considered, was just as well. There were tons of 20 somethings, as you would expect, and a few 30 somethings. But what shocked us was how many were dressed as furries, bronies and just generally maladapted individuals. We only went one night, but it’s a 3 day event, meaning these kids spent roughly $350 for a 3 day pass, plus hotels, food, etc. They even had a payment plan for tickets. What we saw was complete self absorbtion paired with a need for immediate gratification. Is that a sign of amydala atrophy? And if so, can it ever be reversed once it’s gone that extreme? Thanks for taking the time to answer.