Could Donald Trump Lose?

Donald probably is inevitable, but…

Following the South Carolina primary, an interesting article by Michael Harrington went around Facebook that speculated that Donald Trump’s victory in the South Carolina primary was attributable to Democrats voting in the Republican (open) primary. One of the good things about Harrington’s article is that he put out a testable hypothesis — that turnout in the Democratic primary a few days later would be less than 390,000. In fact, it was 367,000. Harrington concludes that had South Carolina had a closed primary, Ted Cruz would have won the primary there. I don’t know him and the author seems to be anti-Trump based on other things he has written — but the fact that his prediction was borne out adds some independent verification to his thesis.

Trump’s supporters are anti-establishment. It wouldn’t be impossible that a fair chunk of his support is from libertarians and independents who are not officially registered as Republicans, and that has been combined with blue-collar Democrats who like him, and those looking to interfere. He clearly has the dominance, leadership, and presentation to defeat anyone if polled among the masses. However as the entire machine turns on him, in primaries composed of people who have chosen to be within the Republican Party’s machine, nothing is guaranteed.

Clearly the establishment is hoping to have some technicality, such as Trump not gaining a majority in the required eight states, to force this into a backroom at the convention. Even worse, it would appear Romney is setting himself up to take it from there.

At this point, nothing is as important as destroying the establishment once and for all, and as much as I like Cruz and his positions, I think the only true stake through the establishment’s heart is Donald J Trump’s victory.

Donald has traditionally thought outside the box, and made very few mistakes. What if his “mis-step” in disavowing the KKK wasn’t a mis-step, but rather a trick, designed to focus attention on the fact that his running mate ultimately, Allen West, was black? Allen West, announced as a VP choice before the nomination contest was over, would steal blacks from Hillary, immediately bring ultra-conservative Cruz supporters on board, bring another anti-establishment candidate who was redistricted out by the establishment, add a pro-military air to the ticket, and if done early would create an air of inevitability to his nomination. “I mean, he’s already got a VP, while all these other tools are running alone.”

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8 years ago

[…] By Anonymous Conservative […]

Matt
Matt
8 years ago

I don’t trust Trump do actually do what he says, he’s obviously on the hustle. But if he wins the nomination, I’ll vote for him. If the GOP tries to force a Yankee Liberal like Mitt Romney down our throats, I’ll vote for Trump as an independent (if he runs that way).

For me, it’s a matter of voting for known disasters or taking a chance on Trump, so Trump it is. In the meantime, the current GOP leadership needs to be kicked to the curb (and Hillary needs to be in prison)

bob sykes
bob sykes
8 years ago

This is evidence of Trump’s broad support, and it reinforces the idea that he will win in a landslide.

Prof. Helmut Norpoth, Stony Brook Poli Sci, gives Trump a 97 to 99 % of winning the Presidency, if he can get the nomination. However, his model does not predict a landslide win.

Chad Waterbury
Chad Waterbury
8 years ago

West would be an outstanding VP choice!

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps
8 years ago

Trump could lose the nomination. He could not lose the general once he had the nomination.

Cruz can beat Trump if Rubio steps out. No one is going to get 100% of another candidate’s voters, but Cruz will get the vast majority of Rubio’s, and that is already enough to put him ahead of Trump — and get a plurality.

Right now, the GOPe argument seems to be, “Trump is Hitler but we can’t vote for Cruz because, uh, he’s rude.” I think that they are getting over that as Rubio flames out, and waiting for Rubio to lose Florida might be waiting too long.

For the grassroots to think that we don’t need the GOPe’s money is as self-defeating as the GOPe thinking they don’t need our goodwill. This is their Come to Jesus moment. They need to figure out that they do need us, and that means not shitting on us every single time they have a slightly different desire. We need to not make the same mistake.

Cruz is a good candidate for us. If Trump wins, the Deep State is going to close ranks entirely to keep all the bodies buried, and Trump isn’t going to know where to start. I think it is much more likely that Cruz knows a couple of places to start digging, and once one or two bodies come out of the ground, then the rabbits are going to know it is time to start betraying each other, to our benefit.

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps
Reply to  everlastingphelps
8 years ago

Majority, not plurality. (I had Trump’s plurality but not majority on my mind.)

everlastingphelps
everlastingphelps
Reply to  Anonymous Conservative
8 years ago

That’s the thing though — that sort of conspiracy is like an eggshell. It’s strong until a crack appears, and then it falls apart.

No one is going to see Cruz (or anyone else at the top) putting a crack into it and fall on their sword to fix the crack. That’s not the type of person who ends up at the top. They’re going to cash out, and tie up any loose ends they can think of — and the loose ends are their co-conspirators..

You don’t have to destroy the conspiracy. You have to crack a part of it, and it destroys itself to protect the individuals that comprise it.

trackback
8 years ago

[…] Anonymous Conservative on the GOP(e)’s plan to stump the Trump. […]

davecydell
8 years ago

West ? If so, wish I would have hitched a ride with McClendon. May as well make a warm, cuddly
Muslim Secretary of Defense.