Signs Of Societal Collapse – Flickering

I can’t think of a better term, though the rest of the study seems childish in light of r/K Theory:

It has been seen all throughout human history – a bustling community experiences a population boom and technological advancement until, seemingly overnight, it plummets into total collapse…

By analyzing archaeological records of the European Neolithic communities, which existed roughly 9,000 years ago, researchers have identified the early warning signals linked to societal downfall…

During this period, the communities experienced massive population growth as a result of the emergence of agriculture and the technological advancements that followed.

While these developments may seem beneficial, they also led to ‘periods of devastating societal instability that we are only now beginning to understand,’ the authors wrote.

They analyzed the records for two types of signals: critical slowing down and flickering…

‘Here, flickering would suggest increasing recovery time from population decline events relative to growth events before major collapse.’

In their investigation, the team found that such warning signs did line up with the eventual collapse of a given community.

Flickering might be the best way to describe our economies today. Not a roaring flame, not extinguished, and prone to 2008 type events followed by artificial bubbles that barely keep things bearable. At its most extreme, flickering probably manifests as an increase in market volatility, also a precursor to collapse.

It is probably the result of two factors. First, amygdalae are beginning to come online, and seeing periodic instinctual triggers indicating that bad is coming, interspersed with indicators resources are not yet too short to support the population. That keeps bubbles of illogical enthusiasm interspersed with sudden periodical K-selected collapses happening.

Second, the society is still able to produce in an emergency, but as the r-selected consumers begin to out number the K-selected producers, this ability of the K’s to support the r’s becomes increasingly tenuous. Small disruptions begin to have outsized effects which they would not have, were the society more uniformly K-selected.

It is still amazing to me that nobody looks at the human machine, and realizes that humans in societies which collapse are exhibiting a different form of brain programming from humans in societies that are roaring. Why are their brains programmed differently? Why does it appear so fundamental to their nature? What led to the dichotomy? Why does a loosening of sexual mores and increased tolerance of defectives seem to accompany it? What role does resource availability – the most fundamental psychological stimulus – play in all of this?

What will never cease to amaze is seeing r/K Theory for years now, and still opening up the web browser, and seeing a fresh new article detailing exactly how leaders in their field are still totally clueless about the real mechanism governing civilization’s historical ups and downs.