Trust in the political and financial system disintegrated and has further deteriorated as the ruling elite continue to loot and pillage as if the 2008/2009 global financial meltdown never happened. From the perspective of the archaic social order there is no longer a crisis. The recovery narrative, flogged ceaselessly by the crooked establishment and their propaganda fake news corporate media mouthpieces, has convinced millions of willfully ignorant Americans progress is occurring… Has the exiting corrupt social order successfully retained their power, control and influence over the masses by manipulating the levers of society and fending off their demise? Have they already won?…
Based on historical precedent, this Fourth Turning shouldn’t reach its resolution until the mid-2020’s, with a major global conflict on the near term horizon. Those who understand that something wicked this way comes are frustrated by the apparent slowness of the progression. They shouldn’t be too anxious for an acceleration…
•A Crisis era begins with a catalyst – a startling event (or sequence of events) that produces a sudden shift in mood.
•Once catalyzed, a society achieves a regeneracy – a new counterentropy that reunifies and reenergizes civic life.
•The regenerated society propels toward a climax – a crucial moment that confirms the death of the old order and birth of the new.
•The climax culminates in a resolution – a triumphant or tragic conclusion that separates the winners from losers, resolves the big public questions, and establishes the new order…“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.”
You can feel everything described here as the definition of a K-shift. The rising amygdala as r-psychologies meet K-stimuli, the “change in mood,” the climax that is inevitable because extreme r and extreme K cannot exist together and the conditions which produce K will eventually cull r, and the resolution as the winners establish themselves and eliminate the losers. You can see it today everywhere, from the amygdala, to the dopamine, to the entire suite of conflicting morals, mores, ideals, perceptions, and desires which are exactly opposite in every regard, all falling along the lines of r and K.
Then there is the Part 2, which is equally brilliant:
The most important point to comprehend is the death of the existing social order always occurs during the course of a Fourth Turning. Thus far, those constituting the Deep State hierarchy have fended off their demise. They are utilizing every tool at their disposal to retain their wealth, power and control. As their mass media propaganda machine falters, they have redoubled their rigging of financial markets to promote a narrative of economic recovery, while further enriching themselves and their cronies.
It is clear they have reached the peak of financial manipulation, money printing, and artificial interest rate suppression. The narrative is faltering. Their last and final option to retain power is war. As their “everything bubble” (stocks, bonds, real estate) inevitably implodes, civil and/or global military conflict will be utilized to distract the populace from their Deep State domestic disasters.
The time for compromise is long past. There are no moderates left in the political spectrum. The mood of the country is clearly trending towards conflict. Trump, as the grey champion of this Fourth Turning, has proven to be a lightning rod of hate. He infuriates his political opponents, the left wing media, many in his own party, foreign leaders, billionaires and most worrisome to his well-being – the shadowy surveillance state intel operatives.
I have no idea how this story actually ends. I know how nature tends to make it end, but I also know the massive amounts of unnaturally copious resources which have been dumped into the intel apparatus, developing networks, technologies, and all the other machinery, which the Deep State will use to try and control and mold events. My first instinct on pondering that massive machine, which clearly seems to be led by elites who have little regard for American ideals as they relate to their own grip on power, is to think that they will have an outsized effect in this cycle.
But then I see all the other wildcards, and our complete inability judge how any of them will play out. Muslim terrorism, ghetto-violence migrating to where the resources are when welfare stops, organized criminal enterprises and street gangs, the God-Emperor, the 70 Million gun owners, drug cartels from south of the border, outside state actors who are piped right into every house through the internet, the sudden elimination of the majority of government resources when the economy craters, potential climate cooling, splintering of the population into competing subgroups as K-rises to unprecedented heights, and probably ten other major factors.
The only thing that is certain is that the K-shift will always come and take its due. Delay any unpleasantness, and nature will return with force to collect it with interest. We have delayed the economic hurt for a long time now, and each time we put off the reckoning, we make what is coming worse. Carter’s malaise and stagflation should have lasted an extra four to eight years, and there probably should have been two or three other similar downturns in the interim as the populace’s psychology would shift from r to K and back. Instead Reagan opened the debt spigot and let the money flow freely producing this graph, which is the rosy prediction:
That is one giant advance of the r-psychology, produced by synthetic free resource availability. Even the technological advancements this artificial resource glut produced, and the dopamine they elicit, should have arrived slower and been adapted to more gradually. But instead, in twenty years we went from computers being rare to smartphones, 3D Flat screen TVs, virtual reality, mind-blowing computer games, sex bots, social media, ubiquitous porn, movies on demand, the internet, and all the other dopamine which technology delivers today. And all of that is in addition to the free money buffet completely lacking in any shortage, and a complete eradication of foreign threats.
Every year since we began tapping the debt to forestall the reckoning, the amount of debt needed to keep us where we are has increased. And that means that even though there are shadowy governmental forces today with abilities never seen in history, when the collapse hits, its magnitude will likely be unlike anything mankind has ever seen. Which will be bigger? Nobody can tell.
It is exciting. Chances are, if you are in the alt-right, you were made for the exhilaration the unpredictable world which is coming will offer. Drink it in, and know that whatever happens, it will be better than the continued decline into SJW insanity which would otherwise await us.
Tell everyone about r/K Theory, because a reckoning can be a good thing
“Those who understand that something wicked this way comes are frustrated by the apparent slowness of the progression.”
Not so much frustrated as mystified that we have been running on fumes longer than many of us could have imagined.
Surprised it’s lasted so long and worried the kids will have to deal without me.
Isn’t it beautiful?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpN2zjfjLzQ
There are no outside observers; from Federal Reserve Bank governors to high level spooks to billionaires, everyone is impacted by the invisible cognitive pull of fad, fashion and the social mood that impels them. This is why armies cannot resist an idea whose time has come. Each and every one of us is compelled to mirror the stripes of all the other zebras lest we stand out in the eyes of the predators.
A social mood mania drove these most recent pathologically trusting times. Social trust (and the unprecedented global market cooperation gifting us today’s Plenitude) has nowhere to go but down.
Here’s the thing to remember — the intel apparatus built up since WW2 has never been right or anticipated anything in their bailiwick.
They failed to predict Pearl Harbor (albeit with the pre-war structure.)
They failed to predict Russia stealing the plans for the Bomb.
The failed to predict North Korea coming across the 38th (and then embroiled us in a war they still haven’t won.)
They failed to predict the North invading South Vietnam.
They failed to predict any terrorist attacks between the 70s and… today.
They were caught completely flatfooted by the fall of the Berlin Wall and the fall of the Soviet Union, which was their primary focus.
They fucked up both Iranian revolutions, they fucked up Iraq, they fucked up Afghanistan, and they couldn’t find the most wanted man in the world for 10 years when he was being harbored in the most obvious place by one of our “allies”.
Face it — our intel apparatus is good at getting us into trouble, but actually predicting anything, or more importantly, finishing the job? Never done it, likely never will.
I don’t doubt they fuck up, but what if their real objectives have always been increasing their budgets and power, and all the things you mentioned were minor objectives left to a small cadre of underfunded, in the leader’s minds, idiot patriot true-believers who would just have gotten in the way of the prime objective? I mean, did intel budgets get hurt by any of those failures? Did intel agencies become more important or less important after each “failure?” Did they get constrained, or get freer hands after each failure?
I strongly suspect somebody at the top knew about 9/11. And I think whoever they were, they didn’t tell anyone and let it happen. Which makes me wonder how much they fuck up when it comes to holding onto power and expanding their budgets.
It’s going to have to come down to intuition, then. My intuition says that they never saw 9/11 coming, because there was no money or prestige in watching the ME. It was a shit place to get posted, and Congress was too worried about “Domestic Terrorism” (i.e. you and me.) Since they are watching you and me, they know we aren’t an actual danger, so they just spend what they want blackmailing politicians (who make it easy being perverts and hedonists to start with) and spend most of their time focusing on countries that will bribe them not to start a war.
Wars don’t start overnight. This idea that War comes and the shooting starts is a media fiction of quick edits and glossing over the boring parts. The “sorting” is nothing of the kind. The sides have split and they are coalescing into the armies. America looks like a battle of Five Armies. Mestizos, blacks, Jim Jones Leftists, Muslims and Whites. None support the Failed State. I doubt these losers even have any armies to field anymore. The Left has fractured and will not stay together anymore. What Steve Sailer calls the KKKrazy Glue has broken when they “celebrated” the End of White People”. Now the Left is going to start fighting each other in their “Blue Zones”. That is a remarkably small amount of the Whole Country’s Real Estate.
AC, just wanted to say I happened upon your blog and this is incredible stuff! Thank you for keeping your blog so active and insightful!
So I guess we can answer the JQ in terms of r/K also, then. We can say that it’s a case of r-strategy embedding itself in K-strategy environments, no? Pardon me if you’ve already covered this. This is just so incredibly powerful.
What really gripes me is the vast amounts of money they’re wasting. The CIA spent $50 billion on cracks to infiltrate computer systems. The exact same cracks the NSA had already paid for. For $50 billion we could have had a fleet of single stage to orbit spacecraft one of the single most strategic pieces of equipment we could own. Hell that’s 5 aircraft carriers. I can think of all kinds f stuff we could have had if we were just going to piss money away that would have vastly increased our actual defense.